FORECAST CATEGORY IN FOLKLORE TEXTS

Abstract

Folklore texts, which are small text genres, belong to the paremiological fund of language and are the bearers of "folk wisdom." The function of forecasting plays a crucial role in many paroemias (omens, superstitions, proverbs). Forecasting is understood as a modeling of the outcome of an event, aimed at the future. The relevance of this work stems from the need for a complete and comprehensive study of forecasting to effectively utilize forecasting strategies at various levels of life—from everyday activities to scientific study. The goal of this study is to analyze the types of forecasting expressed in folklore texts such as proverbs, omens, superstitions, riddles, slogans, and axioms. The material for this analysis was folklore texts from the aforementioned paroemic genres. We believe that in folklore texts, forecasting can function as a textual category. It is represented in the text through grammatical constructions of the future tense—the generic use of verbs, imperative constructions with future tense meanings, conditional sentences, as well as the use of conjunctions to express logical consequence ("event A leads to (к) event B"), and the disjunctive conjunctions "либо… либо," and "то ли… то ли" to express choice. Furthermore, the purpose of the text itself may be to make a prediction, as in riddles. The study of prediction from the perspective of textual categories demonstrates the scientific novelty of the research.

Extended Abstract

This research analyzes the category of forecasting as manifested in various folklore text genres, including proverbs, omens, superstitions, riddles, slogans, and axioms, based on material extracted from the Russian paremiological tradition. The study positions forecasting as modeling the outcome of an event oriented toward the future, functioning as a textual category that operates at both the structural-semantic level (through grammatical constructions marking temporal relations) and the cognitive level (through the intentional structure of the text itself).

The research identifies five distinct types of forecasting in folklore texts. The first type involves establishing causal or correlational relationships between natural phenomena, characteristic of folk omens, operating through conditional constructions ("if... then...") or simplified structural formulas often marked by a dash. Examples include "Koli na vodu poydut da budet tuman — khleba mnogo" (If they go to the water and there is fog, there will be much bread) and "Mai kholodnyi — god khleborodnyi" (May is cold—the year will be bountiful), reflecting accumulated observational experience of generations.

The second type interprets life experience and identifies patterns in everyday events, as seen in proverbs and superstitions, serving multiple functions: statement of regularities ("A quarrelsome rooster never grows fat"), warning ("Go to court and you won't find justice"), and encouragement ("If you sow bread in good weather, more will be born"). Superstitions establish connections through the structural formula "A is a sign of B," as in "A cat scratches the wall—to bad weather" or "Dogs roll—to rain and snow."

The third type, "fork prediction," presents two deterministic scenarios (desirable and undesirable) using disjunctive conjunctions (либо... либо, то ли... то ли): "Either drink honey or be beaten"; "Either be a lord or be lost." The fourth type examines slogans as part of the paremiological fund, following W. Mieder's work, where forecasting operates through future tense verb forms promising desirable futures.

The fifth type analyzes riddles as texts whose purpose is to create a prediction of the answer, requiring inductive reasoning and cultural knowledge. The study also examines axioms as a special case where forecasting is implicit, arguing that axioms, hypotheses, and scientific laws demonstrate characteristics typical of paroemias despite being formulated in the present tense. The research concludes that forecasting functions as a textual category across diverse folklore genres, operating at both structural-semantic and cognitive levels through grammatical constructions marking temporal relations (future tense, imperative constructions with future meaning, conditional sentences, logical consequence expressions) and through the intentional structure of the text itself.